There haven’t been many polls recently assessing how Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, often considered the most likely choice of a brokered convention, would do against Hillary Clinton, but Real Clear Politics has quite a few from 2015:

RCP Average	3/6 – 12/21	–	–	50.3	42.3	Clinton +8.0
CNN/Opinion Research	12/18 – 12/21	1011 A	3.0	56	41	Clinton +15
Quinnipiac	11/18 – 11/23	1623 RV	2.4	46	42	Clinton +4
Quinnipiac	6/24 – 6/30	1446 RV	2.6	48	41	Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist	4/7 – 4/10	518 RV	4.3	51	43	Clinton +8
PPP (D)	3/6 – 3/9	1152 RV	2.9	48	43	Clinton +5
McClatchy/Marist	2/4 – 2/9	490 RV	4.4	52	44	Clinton +8
CNN/Opinion Research	1/31 – 2/2	900 RV	3.5	55	40	Clinton +15
PPP (D)	1/23 – 1/26	845 RV	3.4	46	44	Clinton +2
CNN/Opinion Research	12/16 – 12/19	950 RV	3.0	52	44	Clinton +8
McClatchy/Marist	12/3 – 12/5	497 RV	4.4	56	40	Clinton +16
Quinnipiac	11/6 – 11/11	2545 RV	1.9	49	40	Clinton +9
PPP (D)	7/19 – 7/21	800 RV	3.5	46	44	Clinton +2
McClatchy/Marist	7/15 – 7/18	980 RV	2.8	53	37	Clinton +16
PPP (D)	3/27 – 3/30	1247 RV	2.8	50	43	Clinton +7
Quinnipiac	2/27 – 3/4	1944 RV	2.2	50	38	Clinton +12
PPP (D)	1/31 – 2/3	800 RV	3.5	50	44	Clinton +6
PPP (D)	1/3 – 1/6	1100 RV	3.0	53	39	Clinton +14

So if Ryan, the VP candidate who lost by 4 points in 2012, goes on to lose by, say, 6 points in 2016 (the natural progression of the government electing a new people), would Republican insiders take that as simply proving that it was all Trump’s fault anyway and the only solution is, same as always, amnesty and more capital gains tax cuts?

Or would Ryan’s 2nd straight defeat on a national ticket finally get the message across that his Kempism is increasingly outdated and that the GOP needs a new platform?

[Comment at Unz.com]