Whatever Happened to the Democrats` Youth/Minority Voter Juggernaut?

After the 2008 election,
both the youth bloc and the

minority bloc

were widely lauded

for turning out in large
to put
Barack Obama in the White House.

Indeed, the MSM punditry
conflated the young and the nonwhite into one overlapping
harbinger of unbeatable Democratic hegemony in the
rapidly-arriving demographic future—in contrast to those
(nearly) dead white males who

voted for John McCain.

Two years later, however,
the future ain`t what it used to be.

A September 3, 2010 Gallup


is headlined:

Blacks, Young Voters Not Poised for High Turnout on Nov. 2
Republicans—and conservative Republicans in particular—are
already tuned in to midterms

The Gallup survey found the decisive factor in this
November`s midterms is that the

older, whiter, and maler

you are, the more interested you are.

That wasn`t true during the

fatally inhibited

(on the GOP side) 2008 campaign.


to the Census Bureau, the percentage of Hispanics age 18 to
24 who voted increased from 20.4 in 2004 to 27.4 in 2008.
That was the highest young Hispanic turnout since 1972,
before the vast wave of immigration made had the paradoxical
effect of reducing the

proportion of Hispanics

active in American civic life. Turnout among young blacks


was also up sharply. [
the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History
Pew Research Center, April 30, 2009]

The 2008

exit poll

found that 18 to 29-year-old Hispanics voted 76-19 for
Obama. 18 to 29-year-old blacks 95-5. (The exit poll didn`t
cover the

Asian vote.

In contrast, although young
whites dutifully voted for Obama 54-44, their turnout
actually dropped slightly, from 2004 to 2008, from 48.5
percent of their possible total to just 48.3 percent.
Apparently the choice between Obama and John McCain was just

less galvanizing for young
than it
was for their nonwhite classmates.

The punditariat is always
denouncing conservative voters as ignorant and
unsophisticated. Yet the revival of apathy among Democratic
blocs in 2010 shows that the Obama fad of 2008 actually
dredged up some of the least savvy citizens ever to

find their way to the
voting booth.

The Democrats are paying
the price for the MSM


Obama to




as if he were the awesomest

Will Smith

Fourth of July-weekend blockbuster movie hero ever. Now that
Obama`s actually in office, he instead reminds them,
vaguely, of that

earnest adjunct professor

who taught the boring Poly Sci 101 course at the

community college

that they dropped out of. Young people, minorities, and,
especially, young minorities, have simply lost much of the
interest in public affairs that they

briefly displayed in 2008.

This suggests the
medium-term strategy for Republicans for coping with
demographic change:

stand by your base

Not surprisingly, that`s
the exact opposite of the line preached by mainstream
analysts: that Republicans can`t dare take an aggressive
line with Obama or on immigration because they will then
washed away by outraged young minority voters, who will

never forget


never forgive the GOP

for any disrespect toward Diversity. We`ve been instructed
repeatedly by the press that Republicans must act

gingerly upon any topic
touching upon diversity

John McCain did.

But in 2010, that`s sure
not happening. Past GOP Establishment spokespersons like
McCain, Bush, and

Karl Rove

are discredited. New, un-neutered grassroots leaders, such
as Arizona state senator

Russell Pearce
author of


have emerged. Long-
topics, such as

anchor babies

Public discussion of these issues has, as VDARE.COM has

fired up the GOP base.

But also, contrary to the
conventional wisdom, this political incorrectness has not
only failed to elicit an effective backlash from young
minorities—it has also apparently heightened their apathy,
causing some of them to lose interest in politics.

Look at this table:

Moreover, 42 percent of whites have been thinking about
their civic duty, compared to only 25 percent of blacks and
25 percent of Latinos. And almost half of the public age 50
or over are contemplating the elections compared to merely
19 percent of the 18 to 29-year-olds.

(Gallup also found a sizable gender gap, although not the
kind that the MSM

likes to talk about
45 percent of men have given some thought to the elections,
compared to only

31 percent of women.)

From a historical perspective, there`s nothing terribly
surprising in the collapse of the vaunted liberal youth vote
in these midterms. Young people don`t vote much, and when
they do, it`s typically because they got worked up over
personalities during Presidential elections. Here are
turnout percentages from the Census Bureau`s post-election


Young people (the orange line) were fired up, relatively
speaking, over George McGovern in 1972, Bill Clinton in
1992, and Barack Obama in 2008. In contrast, old people (the
green line) reliably showed up to vote in Presidential and
midterm elections every year except the depressing Watergate
year of 1974.

Young people simply have more enjoyable things to think
about than public affairs: romance, music, friends, and

who would win in a fight: Batman, Superman, or Spider-Man?

And this pattern of blowing off voting in off-years is
particularly marked for young voters of recent immigrant
stock. Hispanics and Asians became somewhat interested in
the high turnout 2004 election, and went wild (compared to
their traditional lack of participation) over voting for
Obama in 2008:

In contrast, the turnout of
young Hispanics and Asians is generally dismal in midterms:

Only about one out of ten
18-24 year old Hispanics and Asians show up to vote in

Of course, a large reason
that many young people of immigrant ethnicities don`t vote
is because

they can`t vote.


not citizens.

But that`s not the only
reason. Another is civic apathy. We can tell because, in
sharp contrast to the Census Bureau`s contention that it

couldn`t possibly dream of
asking residents of the U.S.

if they are citizens in the

decennial Census,

the Bureau always asks people in its post-election survey if
they are

It turns out that in the 2006 off-year election, looking at
18 to 24 year old citizens alone, turnout was 24 percent
among whites versus 19 percent among blacks, 17 percent
among Hispanics, and 15 percent among Asians.

Bottom line:
the decline in the white share of the vote is happening slower than the
decline in the white share of the population
. But this
is a lesson that many political strategists just can`t seem
to keep straight in their heads.

And, conversely,
appealing to white interests does not automatically alienate minorities

When you think about common
human psychology, this shouldn`t be surprising. For example,
the press`s notion that Latino voters would respond to
Republican criticism of legal and illegal immigration with
relentless resentment, with endless spite, is just another
example of


by the media elite.

The reality is that most
nonwhites can`t be bothered to feel as much racial hatred as
the MSM demands they feel. They`ve got a life.

Instead, human beings
generally try to associate themselves with what is being
praised by society and disassociate themselves from what is
being criticized. Being callow, young people are
particularly impressionable. Despite all the romantic piffle
about young rebels, the fact is that young people
(especially the kind who are likely to vote) tend to be
conformists. Hispanic and

Asian youths

are perhaps even more conformist than white and black

When viewed from this
perspective, the rise and fall of young Hispanic and Asian
excitement over Obama`s party in 2008 to 2010 makes sense.
Voting for a black candidate for President was not an act of
youthful rebellion for Hispanics and Asians, but of
conformity to the endlessly spelled-out wishes of the
respectable institutions of society: the


and even, so far anybody could tell,

the Republican nominee.

Similarly, if the President
of the United States


illegal immigrants (as George W. Bush did,


going to come here if you`re worth your salt, if you want to
put food on the table for your families”

Viva La Raza!

But on the other hand, if white people continue to

become ever so slightly less intimidated about

publicly defending their
own interests,

well, Hispanic and Asian young people have more fun things
to do with their time than worry about elections.

This implies a simple,
effective strategy for the Republican Party—the opposite of
that pursued by

Bush, Rove, and McCain
Instead of appeasing professional minority activists and
thus making them more powerful by letting them claim to be
able to deliver goodies,
stand up to them.

The GOP remains,
overwhelmingly, a party whose most

enthusiastic supporters are
mature white men.

Stop being ashamed of that fact. Show some self-respect.
Stand up for the interests of your voters. Don`t let ethnic
hustlers bully your constituents so much.

The race racketeers can
smell fear. Moreover, as a former young person, I can attest
that young people care less about policy issues than that
they want to be on a winning side. They are acutely
sensitive to signs of weakness. The 2008 campaigns of

Hillary Clinton

and John McCain, with their terror of pulling the trigger on
Obama`s soft spot—
long involvement

with Rev.

Jeremiah Wright
palpably abject, so they repelled the young. Young people
won`t invest their fragile egos in embarrassingly
emasculated political campaigns.

Young blacks
felt naturally triumphalist about Obama`s candidacy. Less
inevitably, the pathetic nature of the anti-Obama campaigns
lured young Hispanics and Asians into jumping
opportunistically onto the anti-white bandwagon alongside
blacks—with whom they otherwise don`t have all that

much in common

Weakness invites contempt,
especially from the young, who have a pack instinct. In
contrast, self-confident strength, as demonstrated by


and some of the attacks on Obama, elicits respect and, at
minimum, discourages the mass of opponents.

The reality is that

aren`t going to win over
black voters
But, through a strong defense of their constituents`
interests, they can counter the black triumphalism that
brought so many blacks to the polls in 2008. And they can
definitely discourage Hispanic and Asian anti-white
opportunism simply by stopping being such pushovers.

It just needs courage.

Oh! Wait a minute…

[Steve Sailer (email
him) is

movie critic

The American Conservative

His website


features his daily blog. His new book,