TPS For Haitians Will Cost Obama Florida In 2012 —And The Election
I`m looking far into the future, November
2012 to be exact. And I see trouble for
Barack Obama`s reelection prospects.
Unlike the Main Stream Media, which ties
sinking popularity to his
health care fiasco and his
Democratic agenda, I detect a third problem even more
insurmountable. All three rolled together may be more than Obama
Remember that back a year ago health care
was popular among the majority. Then, Congress talked it to
death and scared Americans away with its price tag and
bureaucratic red tape.
Still, should health care die, as now seems
probable, Obama can blame the Republicans.
Before getting on with the specifics of how
TPS may doom Obama, let`s analyze how Obama got himself into
such a mess.
To start at the beginning: Obama, although
he`s been elected to the U.S. Senate and the presidency, has one
overriding problem that he can`t correct: he`s an inept
Complicating Obama`s political shortcomings
is that he`s surrounded by advisors like
Rahm Emanuel who consistently steer him wrong.
With the headlines in
every major newspaper declaring that the Democrats are in
turmoil, the Main Stream Media describes Obama as
with Defiant Tone, Vows to Push Agenda, by Sheryl Gay Stolberg,
New York Times,
January 22, 2010]
Instead of digging in and ignoring the
obvious message Scott Brown delivered—that Obama makes the
nation nervous—he should put himself through period of sustained
Senate Republican sacrificial lamb nominee
Alan Keyes from
And by 2008, the
country was so sick of eight years of
George W. Bush that most any recognizable Democratic
candidate would have beaten Obama`s
Second, Obama should admit that he`s
possibly the least qualified president ever elected in American
history. His background is exclusively academia, sitting around
all day with colleagues in long, boring, unproductive staff
Presidents, as we`re constantly reminded,
can grow in office—although there`s not much indication that an
Obama sprouting is underway.
The basic lesson of politics, presidential
or otherwise, is to measure the pluses and minuses of every
To wit, what does
Obama gain and what will he lose from granting TPS to
Haitian illegal aliens?
gains absolutely nothing.
Some Florida-based pro-Haitian advocates
the Haitian Coalition for Temporary Protected Status
have sung his praises. Elitist
mainstream media outlets like the
New York Times, already Obama fans from
the outset, have editorialized
ad nauseam about his
But Obama stands to lose
a great deal—specifically,
pivotal in 2012.
While two years is an eternity in politics,
it will be enough time for Floridians to measure what effect the
have had on their lives.
of Haitian immigrants provided by the
Center for Immigration Studies: 22 percent have not
graduated high school while only 18 percent have college
degrees, 20 percent live in poverty, 29 percent are uninsured,
46 percent use at least one major welfare program and only 49
percent own their own home.
While illegal alien Haitians also live in
significant numbers in New York, New Jersey and
Massachusetts, most reside in
Florida—where the 12 percent
unemployment rate is at a thirty-five year high.
Now Haitians, with their new
temporary work permits, will
enter into an already depressed job market with little chance of
being hired. If they get lucky, it will be at the expense of an
Using heroically moderate language to
describe the improbability of the Haitians finding employment,
Amy Stark, the Florida legislature`s
chief economist said:
"The timing is unfortunate. But we know, we`re predicting, that this is
the bottom, so things will improve from here."
Pat Canaan of the
Palm Beach County
Workforce Alliance shares Stark`s grim outlook.
won`t be easy for the Haitian population even with the TPS
exception to secure employment. It`s just not easy for anybody
to find a job right now." [Haitians
Granted Protected Status Face Tough Job Market,
by Michael Laforgia,
Post, January 22, 2010]
So it`s in Florida, perhaps more so than
any other state, where disgruntled voters will get even with
2008 voting pattern and projecting out to 2012, it`s easy to
see how much trouble Obama will be in.
Obama won Florida by a narrow margin of 51
to 48 percent.
The breakdowns are more telling. Obama
edged out McCain in the 45-64 age group by five percent. But
those voters represent the demographic most disillusioned by
Obama`s failed presidency and will therefore probably abandon
Among 65 and older voters, Obama lost by
eight percent. Obama should anticipate further erosion in that
total since senior citizens are convinced that he wanted to cut
their Medicare benefits.
As for black voters, the ones most hurt by
Haitian immigration and TPS, they normally have an erratic
voting pattern, going to the polls only infrequently. They
showed up for Obama`s historic 2008 election but are unlikely to
feel as motivated in 2012.
Immigration generally and TPS specifically
are a “no win” for
him. But he forged ahead anyway. Now he must face the
Without Florida, Obama will be booted out
of the White House.
him] is a California native
who recently fled the state because of over-immigration,
over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He
has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the
growth rate stable. A
long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School,
Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It
currently appears in the