TPS For Haitians Will Cost Obama Florida In 2012 —And The Election


I`m looking far into the future, November
2012 to be exact. And I see trouble for
President
Barack Obama`s
reelection prospects.

Unlike the Main Stream Media, which ties
Obama`s

sinking popularity
to his

health care fiasco
and his
radical
Democratic agenda
, I detect a third problem even more
insurmountable. All three rolled together may be more than Obama
can overcome.

Obama`s biggest blunder is
Temporary Protected
Status
for
Haitians
living illegally in the U.S. It`s a political miscalculation far
greater than his health care bumbling.

Remember that back a year ago health care
was popular among the majority. Then, Congress talked it to
death and scared Americans away with its price tag and
bureaucratic red tape.

Still, should health care die, as now seems
probable, Obama can blame the Republicans.

But Obama has no-one to point to

except himself
for giving TPS to

approximately 200,000 Haitians
. It is
a
gamble
so ill-conceived that it will likely cost Obama
Florida`s 27
electoral votes.

Becoming president
without carrying
Florida

is tough. Since 1928, only two presidents have been elected
without winning Florida:

John F. Kennedy
(
1960) and

Bill Clinton
(1992).

Before getting on with the specifics of how
TPS may doom Obama, let`s analyze how Obama got himself into
such a mess.

To start at the beginning: Obama, although
he`s been elected to the U.S. Senate and the presidency, has one
overriding problem that he can`t correct: he`s an inept
politician.

Complicating Obama`s political shortcomings
is that he`s surrounded by advisors like

Rahm Emanuel
who consistently steer him wrong.

With the headlines in
every major newspaper declaring that the Democrats are in
turmoil, the Main Stream Media describes Obama as
“defiant.” [
Obama,
with Defiant Tone, Vows to Push Agenda
, by Sheryl Gay Stolberg,
New York Times,
January 22, 2010]

Instead of digging in and ignoring the
obvious message Scott Brown delivered—that Obama makes the
nation nervous—he should put himself through period of sustained
introspection.

First, if Obama were to submit himself to
honest self-analysis he`d conclude that he won his

Senate seat
and the

presidency
in what can fairly be described as

uncontested races.

In 2004, Illinois had to import its
Senate Republican sacrificial lamb nominee

Alan Keyes from
Maryland.

And by 2008, the
country was so sick of eight years of
George W. Bush
that most any recognizable Democratic
candidate would have beaten Obama`s

weak opponent,
John McCain.

Hillary
Clinton
would probably have been elected by the same margin
as Obama, if not greater. For that matter, the pre-Rielle
Hunter
John Edwards likely
would have won also.

Second, Obama should admit that he`s
possibly the least qualified president ever elected in American
history. His background is exclusively academia, sitting around
all day with colleagues in long, boring, unproductive staff
meetings.

Presidents, as we`re constantly reminded,
can grow in office—although there`s not much indication that an
Obama sprouting is underway.

The basic lesson of politics, presidential
or otherwise, is to measure the pluses and minuses of every
decision.

To wit, what does

Obama gain
and what will he lose from granting TPS to
Haitian illegal aliens?

Obama
gains
absolutely nothing.

Some Florida-based pro-Haitian advocates
like

the Haitian Coalition for Temporary Protected Status

have sung his praises. Elitist
mainstream media outlets
like the


Washington Post

and the

New York Times,
already Obama fans from
the outset, have editorialized
ad nauseam about his
“compassion”.

The Haitians now spared from being

deported
(as if that were

ever going to happen
) can`t vote, so Obama doesn`t benefit
there either.

But Obama stands to lose
a great deal—specifically,
Florida
`s electoral votes which might be
pivotal in 2012.

While two years is an eternity in politics,
it will be enough time for Floridians to measure what effect the
“protected” Haitians
have had on their lives.

Although it may be cruel to ask, in what
conceivable way
could
the
Haitians contribute
to Florida?

Our
Edwin S.
Rubenstein
in his analysis
here
is deeply skeptical.

Here`s
a snapshot
of Haitian immigrants provided by the
Center for Immigration Studies
: 22 percent have not
graduated high school while only 18 percent have college
degrees, 20 percent live in poverty, 29 percent are uninsured,
46 percent use at least one major welfare program and only 49
percent own their own home.

While illegal alien Haitians also live in
significant numbers in New York, New Jersey and
Massachusetts, most reside in
Florida—where the 12 percent
unemployment rate
is at a thirty-five year high.

Now Haitians, with their new
temporary work permits, will
enter into an already depressed job market with little chance of
being hired. If they get lucky, it will be at the expense of an
American citizen.

Using heroically moderate language to
describe the improbability of the Haitians finding employment,
Amy Stark, the Florida legislature`s
chief economist said:
"The timing is unfortunate. But we know, we`re predicting, that this is
the bottom, so things will improve from here."

Pat Canaan of the
Palm Beach County
Workforce Alliance
shares Stark`s grim outlook.

"It
won`t be easy for the Haitian population even with the TPS
exception to secure employment. It`s just not easy for anybody
to find a job right now."
[Haitians
Granted Protected Status Face Tough Job Market
,

by Michael Laforgia, Palm
Beach

Post
, January 22, 2010]

So it`s in Florida, perhaps more so than
any other state, where disgruntled voters will get even with
Obama.

By analyzing Florida`s

2008 voting pattern
and projecting out to 2012, it`s easy to
see how much trouble Obama will be in.

Obama won Florida by a narrow margin of 51
to 48 percent.

The breakdowns are more telling. Obama
edged out McCain in the 45-64 age group by five percent. But
those voters represent the demographic most disillusioned by
Obama`s failed presidency and will therefore probably abandon
him.

Among 65 and older voters, Obama lost by
eight percent. Obama should anticipate further erosion in that
total since senior citizens are convinced that he wanted to cut
their Medicare benefits.

As for black voters, the ones most hurt by
Haitian immigration and TPS, they normally have an erratic
voting pattern, going to the polls only infrequently. They
showed up for Obama`s historic 2008 election but are unlikely to
feel as motivated in 2012.

As

Steve Sailer
said in his

comments on Obama`s State of the Union address
, Obama is
simply not a very good politician.

Immigration generally and TPS specifically
are a “no win” for
him. But he forged ahead anyway. Now he must face the
consequences.

Without Florida, Obama will be booted out
of the White House.

Joe Guzzardi
[email
him] is a California native
who recently fled the state because of over-immigration,
over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He
has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the
growth rate stable. A
long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School,
Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It
currently appears in the


Lodi News-Sentinel.