Sea Change—Or Smoke Screen?


It`s the
political mirage that won`t dissipate. On May 29, Donald
Lambro

wrote
in the Washington
Times
:

"There is growing fear among Democratic strategists that George W.
Bush is making gains in their party`s base, especially
with minorities and labor. If true, this could be the
most important political sea change in America in 70
years.

“Donna
Brazile, the black

turnout specialist
who ran Al Gore`s 2000
presidential campaign, has been telling the Democratic
National Committee and anyone else who will listen,
`don`t take African-Americans for granted` because their
loyalty is eroding and Mr. Bush is courting them
aggressively."

I say: bunk (not for the first time).

So
Donna Brazile
wants Democrats to pay more attention
to African-Americans—such as (to pick a random example)
Donna Brazile?

Well, I`m sorry if this is disillusioning to Mr. Lambro—but
political consultants like Brazile and

Karl Rove
seldom say anything to the press that
hasn`t been crafted to advance their interests.

And it`s generally not hard to figure out what their interests are.

The truth is that there`s simply

no evidence
that blacks voted more Republican

last November
than they did in 2000. I`m not aware
of anybody even claiming that they did.

Lambro goes on:

"This
slippage is even more

[!!!!]
evident among heavily Democratic Hispanic and Latino
voters. Some 35 percent of all Hispanics voted
Republican in 2002, according to postelection surveys."

But 35 percent is

exactly
George W. Bush`s (pitiful)
share of the Hispanic vote back in 2000. So the
Democrats have experienced no slippage
whatsoever—despite all the "Hispandering"
(as

Mickey Kaus
calls it) that the Administration did
over the first two years.

In the current (May 1st)
issue of the neoliberal Washington Monthly, Ruy
Teixeira, co-author of

The Emerging Democratic Majority
, explains what
actually happened in the last election. Sounding
a lot like, well,

me
, Ruy

wrote
:

"Last November was
all about the white vote. For all the talk of Republican
minority outreach, the voters who showed up for the GOP
on Election Day were, with few exceptions, white. In the
2000 election, 54 percent of whites voted for Bush and
56 percent for congressional Republicans; in 2002 that
figure rose to 58 percent, which, coupled with higher
turnout of whites, especially conservative whites, was
enough for victory. Viewed one way, that`s good news for
Republicans, since whites comprise the overwhelming
majority of U.S. voters. Trouble is, that majority is
steadily diminishing."

Minorities simply didn`t show up much to vote last November. For
example, in

California
, where we have the most reliable exit
poll data, the nonwhite share fell from 36 percent in
1998 to 24 percent in 2002.

In effect, Republican
minority outreach has turned out to be a smokescreen
that Karl Rove laid down to distract the media from his
fundamental (and winning) strategy of getting more
whites to turn out and vote Republican—what we at
VDARE.COM call (despite my modest disclaimers) the "Sailer
Strategy."

Rove succeeded in making the 2002 election about fighting terrorism
and fighting Iraq (which was portrayed as one and the
same thing).

In contrast to whites, foreign affairs generally don`t much
interest minority groups, except when an immigrant
group`s home country is affected — for instance,
Cuban-Americans are

intensely interested
in the embargo on Cuba.

Since the election, the Administration has been preoccupied with
its second tax cut bill and with Iraq.

If the
economy
finally climbs off the canvas before
Election Day, which it should do if the normal business
cycle is still in effect, then the Administration is
positioned to claim credit on the grounds that it at
least Did Something.

But it`s hard to imagine that cutting the dividend tax will loosen
the Democrats` traditional grip on the black and
Hispanic electorates. Cutting the

estate tax
certainly didn`t lure minorities into the
GOP fold in the 2002 election.

Personally, I`m not terribly optimistic about the fate of
neoconservative plans to turn Iraq (of
all places
) into Proposition Nation, Jr.

But that probably won`t hurt Bush much in the upcoming election.
For many Americans, so far as I can judge from listening
to country music radio stations, the Iraq Attaq wasn`t
about democratizing the Middle East. It was about racial
revenge.

Some
Arabs
blew up the

World Trade Center
, so we blew up some Arabs.
Mission accomplished.

Unquestionably, the Bush Administration`s pugnacious foreign policy
has caused the most warlike ethnic group among WASPs to
turn out and vote overwhelmingly for the GOP. (You might
ask: Wait a minute — are there

WASP ethnic groups?
Next week, I`ll explain what
they are, and how the Administration seems to be
targeting the most strategic one.)

But there are two
small problems with Rove`s approach.

First, he`s
inflicting damage upon the

American citizenry
, and his

own party
, not just in the long term but in the
quite pressing medium term, by

shoving through
an illegal alien amnesty etc. just
so that he can spin the press in the short term.

Second, what would
Rove have done without 9/11?

If it hadn`t happened, would he have had to invent it?


[Steve Sailer [email
him] is founder of the Human Biodiversity Institute and


movie critic
for


The American Conservative
.
His website


www.iSteve.blogspot.com
features his daily
blog.]