Joe Predicts: Zero Percent Chance Of Amnesty In 2009!

of George W. Bush has proven one thing: that it
doesn`t matter what the U.S. president wants regarding an
alien amnesty
open borders
, unlimited
work visas
or any other

elements of immigration policy that subvert
American interests about which he may fantasize.

If Bush simply could have snapped his fingers
and gotten his way, I imagine he would have established an
expansion of the
foot, dry foot”
policy that currently applies to

Then the only requirement for a green card
would be
to get into the US

Bush would doubtless have loved to have
created a national
rolling amnesty
that would have included Mexico,
Central and
South America
—and perhaps everyone in the world.

But throughout his two terms, Americans
thwarted Bush at his every turn. Despite his virtually non-stop
efforts to get his
immigration agenda past Congress
, Bush instead lost ground
every year.

At his
low point
in 2007, Bush experienced such a string of ignominious

“Comprehensive Immigration Reform”
defeats that his
what in effect was a vote of no confidence.

Given our successes, I—unlike other
immigration reform patriots—am not in a huge lather about what
appears to be the certainty

of a 2009 amnesty effort.


in-house optimist
. Our recent track record gives me good
reason to feel as I do.

McCain and Barack Obama
are both for amnesty.

So what?

If Bush couldn`t get it past either
a Republican or Democratic controlled Congress
, why should
we assume either of them will?

The American government has a process
that must be followed.

Whoever wins in November will start his
first term with higher negatives than Bush did. In fact, the
survivor will likely be the least popular president ever
elected, thus starting out his new job with a considerable
reservoir of ill will.

The worsening economy, the nation`s rotten
public education
and the ever-present
Iraq War
put immigration reform no higher than fifth on most lists of
American`s concerns.

In some states, like my

, immigration is barely on the radar, at least
by comparison to California.

That makes “comprehensive immigration
unlikely to be the first item on the new president`s
legislative to-do list. Why lead with your chin?

McCain and Obama`s challenge is to get
elected. As of today, each is floundering in the polls and
probably appearing less attractive to even their small core of
hard-core supporters as the days drag on.

Whichever candidate does the best job of
convincing the unconvinced will prevail. Fifty-three days remain
for either to pull it off.

Which of the two might blink and bring
immigration to the forefront of their campaigns?

Short answer: neither.

Despite what our
friend Mickey Kaus
at Slate
(that Obama could appeal to blue collar workers suspicious of
him by promising to delay amnesty until he became convinced that
wages would not be adversely impacted by more immigration),
Obama has no wiggle room.

  • First, Obama is the candidate who publicly supported
    driver`s licenses for aliens. (See his speech

If you`re one of many who wonder about Obama`s
intelligence, remember that his endorsement of this

wildly unpopular idea
could easily have been ducked by
saying that licenses are a state and not a federal issue.

  • Second, Obama doesn`t have a disaffected base on
    immigration. Mainstream Democratic voters support amnesty.
  • Third, Obama has made
    so many pleas
    on behalf of Hispanics “in the shadows”
    that if he reversed himself now, he would appear idiotic. [Obama
    Pitches Immigration Policy
    , by T.W. Farnam, Wall
    Street Journal,
    September 10, 2009]

Peter Brimelow

that Obama try to draw McCain out about his

amnesty devotion
by pressing for an agreement between them
that whoever ends up going back to the Senate will commit to
working tirelessly with the winner on comprehensive immigration

The idea is sound—trying to trip McCain up
on his true treasonous immigration feelings—and would make
wonderful theater. But I can`t envision either of them playing.

While its true that thousands of

Republican voters
—or would-be voters—are

at McCain for his immigration betrayal, he`s

all of them to such an extent that nothing he
could say or do at this point would bring them around.

On immigration, Republicans equate McCain to

The situation on the ground is what we have
come to expect from presidential candidates: the
they say
about immigration to a broad-based audience, the
safer it is for them.

Let`s assume the worst: that whoever gets
into the White House will immediately throw all of his weight
behind amnesty.

It won`t get to first base.

  • Unlike in 2001, when we were “ambushed,” the
    patriotic immigration reform movement is fully prepared to
    go to the mat.
  • Amnesty in all its forms, either “comprehensive,” a

    “grand compromise,”
    or one piece at a time (Dream
    Act and Ag Jobs), has been soundly defeated dating back even
    further than the Bush administration. The

    last success
    the other side registered occurred during
    the Clinton years.
  • To grasp the enormity of passing
    amnesty, consider that similar bills introduced this week

    (H.R. 5882 and H.R. 5924)
    increase worker visas by more than 550,000 met with such
    public outrage that the House Judiciary Committee could not
    even organize a vote even though one had been scheduled.
    This is in the Committee! Good luck to them on

  • Whether the Republicans or the Democrats control the next
    111th Congress, the environment may be more
    hostile than the 110th that consistently sent
    amnesty down to a string of defeats. Many

    immigration restriction
    candidates will be on November`s
    ballot. If elected, expect their votes to be cast in our

In a perverse kind of way, I`m actually hoping
that an amnesty bill makes it to the floor. Of course, it`s a
drag to have to fight the
same battles over and again.

But when it`s defeated, as I am 100 percent
certain it will be, amnesty will be cast aside to the lowest
rung of Congress` legislative agenda—labeled as something that
is simply not doable.

Once amnesty tanks again, it won`t be
resurrected for a long time to come.

Joe Guzzardi
is a California native
who recently fled the state because of over-immigration,
over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He
has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the
growth rate stable.
long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School,
Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It
currently appears in the

Lodi News-Sentinel.