“Ethnic Correctness” isn`t saving CA GOP
I recently got an email from my favorite
neoconservative politician. (I`m not mentioning
his name since it was a private message. But
since true neoconservative politicians are
practically nonexistent – as opposed to the Joe
Liebermans and Daniel Patrick Moynihans who talk
like Irving Kristol but vote like Walter Mondale
– you probably can guess his name.)
He asked my opinion of a House race in the
Fresno farm region of California`s Central
Valley. It pits Democrat incumbent Cal Dooley
against Republican newscaster Rich Rodriguez.
Running a Mexican-American in a district that`s
60% Hispanic (40% of registered voters) has
given the GOP a shot at taking a seat away from
the Democrats – especially important in the
incredibly close national race to control the
House. His implication: see, Republicans can so
win – with the right, ethnically-correct,
Here`s the key point, though. Even a
handsome, glib, popular, well-known local
Mexican-American Republican is still
losing among Latinos by a margin of 48% to 30%
in the last poll. If the Anglo Democrat Dooley
(granted, there is something wacky about calling
anybody named "Dooley" an
"Anglo") maintains this proportion in
the election, he wins a landslide 62% of the
So 38% appears to be the upper limit of the
California Latino vote that the Republicans can
hope to win under ideal conditions.
In other words, the California GOP is doomed.
It may win a few elections during the next
decade or two. Beyond that, though, the tidal
waves of Mexican and Central American
immigration sweep it down the memory hole.
I guess the long-term good news for the
national GOP is that it will be winning even
bigger landslides in Utah than it does now.
Latin American immigration not only brings
"natural Democrats" into California,
it drives "natural Republicans" out of
California to the Great Basin.
Somehow, though, I don`t think Utah and Idaho
will provide the GOP with much consolation for
their slow-motion catastrophe in California.
Of course, in theory the GOP could rally
white i.e. American voters and cut off
immigration, allowing assimilation to work etc.
But that`s another story….
Republican Rich Rodriguez`s website: http://www.richrodriguez.com/
Democrat Congressman Cal Dooley`s website: http://www.house.gov/dooley/
[Steve Sailer [email
him] is founder of the Human Biodiversity Institute and
October 26, 2000